What now for Eddie Howe?

Three defeats in a row since returning from lockdown, one point from the last eighteen available, stuck in the Premier League relegation zone, and a tough run in to come, Bournemouth and their manager Eddie Howe are under serious pressure for the first time in many years.

It has been quite a slump for the south coast club this year having been relatively comfortable in mid table for the past few seasons. Howe himself has been linked with vacancies at Arsenal and England off the back of an impressive managerial record, but the 2019/20 season has seen his reputation take a hit.

Howe first entered management with Bournemouth in 2009 at the age of just 32 after his playing career ended early due to injury. Howe took over a Bournemouth side fighting relegation after beginning the season on -17 points. He led the side to safety with an impressive run of form that he continued into the next season when he led The Cherries to promotion to League One. Top scorer in the promotion campaign was Brett Pitman with 26 goals, a player Howe had brought though the youth system, and he was partnered by veteran Steve Fletcher who Howe had brought back to the club as one of his first managerial signings. Another notable transfer in the early stages of Howe's managerial career was Jason Tindall. Tindall didnt make much impact on the pitch but would go on to become Howe's assistant manager.

The 2010/11 season saw Pitman depart to Bristol City, and although Howe eventually left the club in January 2011 he had laid the foundations both for that season when Bournemouth finished in the play offs and for future years with some impressive recruitment. Harry Arter was signed for just £140k, Marc Pugh on a free transfer and Adam Smith on a loan deal from Spurs. All three have gone on to have successful careers at the club.

When Howe departed Dean Court, his destination was Championship side Burnley. He steered the Lancashire side to an 8th place finish, before securing a mid table finish in 2011/12, his first full season at the club. Despite not threatening the play offs, Howe showed his recruitment skills again, and again laid the foundations for future club success. During his time at Turf Moor he oversaw the transfers in of Charlie Austin, Ben Mee, Kieran Trippier, and Danny Ings. Howe's stint at Burnley was steady if not spectacular and they would go on to achieve another mid table finish before reaching the Premier League shortly afterwards. By that time Howe was back on the South Coast after making what seemed an inevitable return to Bournemouth.

Upon his return Howe inherited a squad containing future stalwarts Charlie Daniels, Simon Francis and Steve Cook, while Lewis Grabban led the line and was joined shortly after Howe's return by the also returning Brett Pitman. However the team were struggling with only one win in the first twelve games. Howe had an immediate impact as the team adapted quickly to his attractive and expansive playing style and recorded fifteen wins,and five draws from the next twenty one games. Eye catching winter transfer window signings saw Matt Ritchie and Ryan Fraser join the squad, and although a worrying five defeats in a row halted progress, eight straight win followed a Bournemouth secured a promotion into the Championship.

The 2013/14 season in the Championship was only the second time in their history that Bournemouth had been higher than the second tier and they consolidated nicely with a 10th placed finish. Howe made very few changes to his squad, relying mainly on the players that had earned promotion.

The following season 2014/15 is widely regarded as the greatest in Bournemouth's history and saw Howe's reputation rocket as he led his side to promotion to the Premier League. A team founded on lower league players excelled as they produced some unbelievable football taking them to the Championship title. Francis (Charlton, Southend), Cook (Brighton), Daniels (L Orient) were all used to plying their trade below the top two tiers but all played over forty game in the title winning season. Pugh, Fraser, Arter and Pitman also played crucial roles as Howe moulded a team that had won promotion from League One into a Championship winning one. The one significant change from the League One promotion side was the addition of Callum Wilson signed from Coventry for a fee in the region of £3 million, to replace Grabban who left for Norwich for a similar figure. This was a tremendous achievement for Howe who had now secured promotions from League Two, League One and the Championship, and had taken a team with no obvious superstars into the Premier League.

Predictably Bournemouth were immediately installed as relegation favourites for the 2015/16 season. Aside from Andrew Surman and Dan Gosling, the promoted team had little or no Premier League experience. Howe attempted to address this with something of a summer spending spree backed by the new Russian owners of the club. Tyrone Mings (£8 million), Max Gradel (£7 million), Lee Tomlin (£3 million), Glenn Murray (£4 million) and Josh King (£1 million) were all expensive purchases while Artur Boruc and Sylvain Distin signed on free transfers. The winter transfer window saw Benik Afobe (£10 million) and Lewis Grabban (£8 million) also added to the squad. Despite a sticky start which saw only two wins in the first fourteen games, Bournemouth found form around December time and secured enough points to secure a 16th place finish and a comfortable avoidance of relegation. The one factor which was concerning for Howe despite achieving their aim of staying up was the lack of impact made by his signings. Mings made just two appearances, while Tomlin, Murray, Gradel and Grabban contributed just six goals from over sixty appearances between them. King netted seven goals in thirty five games, and Afobe four in fifteen to show some promise, but as successful as the season had been, the new signings had produced very little, and it was the likes of Wilson, Daniels, Cook and Arter who caught the eye.

Howe flashed the cash again in the summer of 2016. Lys Mousset (£10 million), Jordon Ibe (£15 million) and Brad Smith (£3 million) and Lewis Cook (£7 million) were notable signings. Among the relegation favourites again, Howe continued to defy the odds and incredibly coached his team to a 9th placed finish. A 4-3 win over Liverpool was the stand out result in a season where their attacking style really caught the eye, recording fifty five goals a total greater than Man Utd, and bettered only by the top six. The new signings were again a cause for concern though as Smith managed only eight games, Mousset & Ibe failed to score and Cook missed most of the season through injury. Despite this lack of impact by his signings, Howe's managerial style and results were catching the eye and he was twice heavily linked with the England managers job after the departures of Roy Hodgson and Sam Allardyce but Howe ruled himself out on both occasions believing it was too early in his career for the national managers job.

Now into their third season in the top flight Bournemouth were an established Premier League side. Summer signings were limited to Nathan Ake (£20 million), Asmir Begovic (£10 million) and Jermain Defoe (Free). A trademark Bournemouth season followed, as the team showed glimpses of their quality without maintaining the consistency to push on and challenge for a European place. Defoe made little impact, but Begovic was a steady prescence in goal and Ake caught the eye. It is tempting to take a third successive mid table finish for granted but for a side used to the lower leagues and in an ever competitive Premier League it was a measure of how far the club had come in recent times.

2018/19 was more of the same for Howe and Bournemouth. Some eye catching football, some stand out performances (4-0 v Chelsea), a mid table finish, and a lack of impact from the summer signings. £19 million was spent on Dominic Solanke who failed to find the net, nearly £30 million on defenders Chris Mepham and Diego Rico who both failed to cement a place in the side, £12 million on David Brooks who showed flashes of class, and £28 million on Jefferson Lerma who aside from disciplinary issues could be considered a success. The concern for Bournemouth was that the stalwarts Daniels, Francis and even Wilson were starting to miss more games through injury, the likes of Arter, Ritchie, Pitman etc had been moved on to make room for the new signings, and these new signings were struggling to make an impact. The consequence of this was that team selection was becoming changeable and the team was losing its identity. They were no longer free flowing and regular scorers but still retained their same defensive vulnerability.

The 2019/20 season began with the recruitment of Phllip Billing (£16.5 million), Lloyd Kelly (£13 million), and Arnaut Danjuma (£15 million). The concerns that had been mounting in the previous seasons started to come to the fore and a sustained run of poor form, coupled with a lack of contribution from the new signings failed to halt the feeling of a downward turn and has almost inevitably seen them slide into relegation trouble. This decline has led to questions over Howe's management for probably the first time in his career.

There is little doubt from Howe's record that he is a fine manager. Three promotions from three different leagues, and five seasons in the top tier are outstanding achievements. However i believe there is a question mark over his ability at the very top level. He has shown his ability to both man manage and recruit players at lower levels. He has turned the likes of Daniels, Cook, Fraser and Wilson into proven Premier League players and in the case of the latter pair, international players. His recruitment of Fraser, Wilson, Arter, Ritchie, Mee, Trippier and Austin shows an eye for a player. However these are all lower league signings, players who have either plyed their trade in the bottom tiers or been released from bigger clubs. Being able to spot these players, managing them and developing them should not be a surprise, Howe spent all of his playing career in the lower leagues, he knows what is required at that level, he know what makes players tick at that standard.

However, at the top level he seems unable to identify and develop talent, and this is why i think he will fall short of managing a top six club despite being regularly linked with the Arsenal job. It is glaring that despite the number of signings he has made, the amount of money he has spent, that the team still relies heavily on the players who were with him on the journey from League One. In defence the first choice back four is Francis, Cook, Ake, Daniels - this is despite the signings of Mings, Mepham, Rico, Kelly, Smith for over £50 million. In midfield Cook, Billing and Lerma have had moderate success, but in wide areas and up front, its bordering on a disaster. Tomlin, Grabban, Murray, Gradel, Afobe, Mousset and Defoe have all been signed and subsequently sold on after failing to make an impact. Jordon Ibe was a £15 million record signing but has just left on a free, while Solanke is a £19 mllion striker with no goals. This failure of Howe to recruit players at Premier League level is the fundamental reason why Bournemouth have declined to a position where they seem certain to be relegated.

Should they be relegated I have little doubt that Howe would put together a squad who would challenge for a return to the Premier League, the question is whether he will remain at the club to mount that challenge. He has previously been linked with Arsenal but I dont believe a top six club would trust him with a large transfer budget based on his track record with Bournemouth. Would another Premier League club take a gamble on him? Possibly, keeping Bournemouth in the league for four seasons would appeal to the chairman who value Premier League status so highly. However the problem there would be that he would end up with a similarly placed mid to lower end of the table side, probably with a smaller budget than he currently enjoys. When the time comes for Gareth Southgate to leave the England job then Howe would definitely be a candidate to replace him. But, with his only role being at a mid table Bournemouth then would he have the necessary experience to succeed in that job?

All of this points to Howe remaining at the club even after relegation, and trying to replicate his previous success by putting together a team that can challenge for promotion and continue that momentum into the Premier League. Eddie Howe is undoubtedly a good coach who has built a fine reputation but unless he can improve his transfer business at the top level then I feel his coaching career has peaked and that further success at Bournemouth or a job at a top club will elude him.