Milner & Toney must go to Qatar 2022

In six days time the draw for the 2022 World Cup will be made and England manager Gareth Southgate will find out their opponents when the tournament kicks off on the 21st November. After finishing 4th in the 2018 World Cup, 3rd in the Nations League in 2019 and then runners up in the Euros of 2021, Southgate will be attempting to go one better and win a major tournament for the first time since 1966.

This will likely be Southgate’s third and final major tournament and he will be working hard to ensure that his squad a team fully prepared for the challenges ahead. Detailed preparation for all eventualities are why his squad selection for 2022 is crucial and why that squad should include Ivan Toney, and James Milner.

Since the turn of the century England have participated in ten major tournaments, five World Cups and five European Championships. In Euro 2000 a 22 man squad was named before a change to 23 man squads from 2002 through to the delayed Euros in 2021 when the squad size was increased to 26 due to the potential impact of Covid 19 on player availability.

Only on one occasion in those ten tournaments has the England manager utilised all of his outfield players with all of them experiencing game time within the tournament - the World Cup in Russia in 2018. However, that tournament was unique for England in that they had qualified from the group stage after two games and therefore their final group game could be considered a dead rubber. They also participated in the 3rd/4th place play off, a game which, while classed as competitive is often approached as a friendly encounter. If you assess the game time for that squad based on competitive games, then 17 of the 23 players were required, with Gary Cahill, Danny Welbeck, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Phil Jones only participating in the two dead runners against Belgium.

The other tournaments since 2000 see a trend of 4-5 players not taking the field at all. Euro 2000 saw 18 of the 22 players appearing, with Richard Wright, Gareth Barry, Robbie Fowler and Kevin Phillips not gaining any minutes. 2002 saw the squad size increase to 23, but Nigel Martyn, David James, Martin Keown, Southgate, and Wes Brown failed to take to the field, while Joe Cole and Wayne Bridge played less than 20 minutes.

In 2004, Kieron Dyer and Emile Heskey played less than 20 minutes between them, while Paul Robinson, Ian Walker, Wayne Bridge, Jamie Carragher, Nicky Butt and Joe Cole were not used at all. Bridge was again unused in Germany in 2006 and was joined on the sidelines by David James, Scott Carson, Jermaine Jenas and Theo Walcott.

Fabio Capello had replaced Sven Goran Ericsson and was in charge in 2010, but the pattern remained the same as a small group of players failed to appear, Stephen Warnock, Michael Dawson, Joe Hart and Michael Carrick the unlucky men.

In 2012, Roy Hodgson was the man at the helm and he left seven players on the sidelines for the tournament, Rob Green, Jack Butland, Phil Jones, Martin Kelly, Phil Jagielka, Leighton Baines, and Stewart Downing failing to join the action.

2014 was a tournament with a dead rubber, courtesy of an early exit after two group games. Fraser Forster and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain saw no action while six others made a solitary appearance in the dead rubber against Costa Rica.

In 2016, Hodgson was joined in the dugout by Gary Neville who was keen to champion the idea of giving as many of the playing squad an appearance on the early stages in case they were required later on in the tournament. Despite that rotation, Fraser Forster, Tom Heaton, Jon Stones and Ross Barkley didn’t get their boots dirty and James Milner and Marcus Rashford appeared for less than 20 minutes.

The most recent tournament saw Southgate again rotate players in order to ensure that people didn’t replicate his experience of 2002 when he didn’t get on the the pitch. However, Aaron Ramsdale, Sam Johnstone, Connor Coady, Ben Chilwell and Ben White were all unused.

Players used and not used

2000 18 and 4

2002 18 and 5

2004 17 and 6

2006 18 and 5

2010 19 and 4

2012 16 and 7

2014 15 and 8*

2016 19 and 4

2018 17 and 6*

2021 21 and 5

*tournaments with dead rubbers

This research shows that in any tournament there are a small number of players that play no active part on the pitch at any stage. Across the tournaments I have covered there are a mixture of tournaments when England have done well and done poorly, tournaments when they have suffered lots of injuries or had a relatively clean bill of health, tournaments on different continents and under different managers but the pattern remains the same.

So what does this tell us? It tells us that when selecting his squad for the World Cup this year, Southgate will likely only use 17/18 of his 23 players during the tournament. It is also clear from the research that of the 5/6 players that don’t make it on to the pitch, this often includes two goalkeepers. So the conclusion we can draw is that there are likely to be 2/3 unused outfield players.

The next stat to look at which is crucial when selecting a squad and looking at the marginal gains which can make a difference between winning and losing a tournament game, is how England tend to exit tournaments.

In 2000, the team capitulated in a winner takes all game v Romania, while in 2002 eventual winners Brazil were too good. Then the trend starts ….. 2004 out on penalties to Portugal, 2006 out on penalties to Portugal, while a hammering from Germany in 2010 was the prelude to another penalty exit in 2012 at the hands of Italy. An embarrassing tournament in 2014 saw a group stage exit, while the pressure in 2016 was too much as England somehow succumbed to Iceland. 2018 saw a heartbreaking defeat in extra time to Croatia before normal service was resumed in 2021, a penalty defeat to Italy.

So of the ten tournament exits this century, four have been as a result of penalty shoot outs.

To Southgate’s credit he identified the importance of penalty shootouts and spent a lot of time preparing for them in 2018, reaping the rewards with a shootout win over Colombia. Owing the process, fetching the ball for the taker, and notes on a water bottle were all contributing factors to a shootout win. These factors were also in place in 2021 for the final shootout with Italy. However the most visible preparation for this shootout was the last minute substitutions which saw Marcus Rashford and Jaden Sancho bought on specifically to take a penalty.

While Southgate took criticism for that decision, I support the intention of placing people on to the pitch who will improve the penalty taking ability of the team, however while Rashford has taken pressure penalties, Sancho is a rare penalty taker and neither were or are their clubs nominated taker on a regular basis.

Imagine therefore that Southgate could have turned to his bench and bought on players who are regular penalty takers, the first choice taker at their club, with a history of success from the spot. This would undoubtedly give his side a better chance of winning a shoot out.

If history told us that all 20 outfield players tended to play an active part in a tournament then you would need to weigh up the benefits of their contributions in order to win games, with the value of experienced penalty takers within the squad. However, we know that there are 2/3 places in every squad where players play no part, and therefore could be replaced by specialist penalty takers. This would have no impact on the squads ability to win other games while greatly improving the ability of the squad to win penalty shootouts.

So, based on this theory let’s start to consider some names and selections. As a guide, a squad of 23 players has to include 3 goalkeepers and therefore loosely leaves two players for every other position, however managers will tend to pick utility players to cover a couple of positions in order to allow extras on other areas. Picking an England squad based on positions and current form could look something like this

Pickford, Pope, Ramsdale

Trippier, Walker, TAA, Shaw, James

Coady, Stones, Maguire, White

Henderson, Rice, Phillips, Bellingham

Saka, Sterling, Foden, Grealish, Mount

Kane, Abraham

Drilling down into the detail of the squad, it’s fair to say that Pickford will be an ever present providing he stays fit and free from suspension and the other two keepers will be unused. However, the three keeper rule is non-negotiable so we will need to assess the other areas of the squad.

The squad I selected above contains nine defenders. It is highly unlikely that all nine will be used. Stones and Maguire would be certain picks in a back 3 or a back 4 while Walker will also be a first choice selection either at right back in a four or RCB in a three. Trippier can play as a right back or a left back understudy to Shaw, and Coady can provide centre back cover. Therefore it is unlikely that Ben White would see any action while its is similarly unlikely that both Rhys James and Trent Alexander-Arnold would make an appearance.

In midfield Rice and Phillips would be certain starters and Bellingham a more than able deputy. Two of those three would need to be absent in order for Henderson to be required.

In the forward areas, it could be argued that all of those players would be needed in different situations, with the exception of Abraham who would only play following an injury to Kane.

So, taking the squad I selected and removing Ben White and either Jordan Henderson or Tammy Abraham and replacing them with two proven penalty takers, would not reduce the ability of the squad to win games as those players I omitted are unlikely to feature.

Next question is who we replace them with? Throughout all levels of football there are players with impressive penalty records. However, in order for this to be relevant we can only select players used to taking penalties at the top level, due to the associated pressure and the ability of the goalkeepers they are facing.

Two names immediately stand out, James Milner and Ivan Toney. Milner has been Liverpool’s first choice penalty taker for some time and has an impressive record of 30 successful penalties out of 35. All of these penalties have been taken at a high level including the Premier League and Champions League. Toney has appeared in the Premier League for the first time this season, but he has proven himself perfect from the spot, leading his manager to describe him as the best in the world. Toney has a unique style but his record of 23 successful penalties from 24 is impressive.

While I am not suggesting that Milner or Toney will contribute in any of the games, it is unlikely, based on the research, that they would be required anyway. However, should England reach the stage where they are involved in a penalty shootout, having the option to bring them off the bench could be crucial. Saka came off the bench in the Euro 2020 final having taken less than five penalties in his career - surely Milner with his experience and record from the spot gives you a better opportunity of success? By going down this line you could end up in a shootout with a line up of Kane, Maguire, Milner, Toney and Alexander-Arnold! That’s an impressive five and you would be confident of success.

Top level football is decided by such fine margins, and having a couple of quality experienced penalty takers on your squad could be the difference between Southgate and his England team finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th, and lifting the trophy.