I knew Kane would miss

When Harry Kane stepped up for the second penalty last night I feared he may miss, and not just because of my natural English football pessimism around penalties, but also because Kane is a good, but not a great penalty taker.

Don’t get me wrong at this stage, Kane would have been my number one choice in the England side to take the two spot kicks, but as good a penalty taker as he is, the fact he doesn’t make into the group of ‘great’ penalty takers meant there was always the worry that he may miss the second kick.

So, what makes Kane a good but not great penalty taker? Statistically Kane matches up with many of the best penalty takers of recent times. His career strike rate is 58 converted out of 69 a strike rate of 84%. This was also his conversion rate for England prior to last night with 16 successful penalties out of 29. This rate compares favourably with current penalty takers such as Ronaldo (146/175 - 83%) and Jorginho (41/48 - 85%) and his English predecessors Gerrard (46/55 - 83%) and Lampard (60/70 - 86%). He has a better return than Messi (107/138 - 77%) and Rooney (48/60 - 80%) but trails in comparison to Shearer (72/77 - 93%) and Bruno Fernandes (44/49 - 90%). The ‘best’ penalty takers are some way out in front though, Toney 26/27 - 96%, Le Tissier 48/49 - 98% and Cantona 22/22 100% all have statistically unbelievable records.

So Kane matches up statistically but still doesn’t reach the top bracket of penalty takers and to dig into the reasons for this we have to look into what makes a good penalty taker.

The first thing most people will say makes a good penalty taker is the ability to deal with pressure. No matter what level of football you play, a penalty kick is a pressurised situation. A chance to score a goal, a chance you are expected to take by your team mates, manager and supporters. When you step up to take that kick all eyes are on you and the pressure to score is palpable. However, we are talking here about regular penalty takers, not volunteers in a shoot out. By being the teams penalty taker there is an acceptance that it comes with a certain amount of pressure and responsibility and by taking that role you are accepting that pressure. Of course within the penalties you take in a season there will be some where the result is already inevitable and the pressure is off, and some where the kick is crucial and the pressure is ramped up, but if you are a player affected by pressure you would not accept the role of penalty taker. So we have to assume that the variations in regular penalty takers abilities doesn’t come down to pressure, all know the pressure the job entails and accept the role, and all will be presented with penalties of varying degrees of pressure within a season.

So, if pressure is not a deciding factor in assessing a penalty taker then what are the other factors? For me these are intention and execution. Firstly we will deal with intention. When players step up to take a penalty, their intention is obviously to score! However how they intend to do this is crucial. Some players intend to deceive the keeper, send him the wrong way, make him dive early knowing that should they be successful with the deception they will have an easy task to convert a successful penalty. Players do this in a variety of ways, walking up to take the kick, stuttering in the run up, skipping just before contact, or looking solely at the goalkeeper and not at the ball. In modern times these methods have become more common, but you can go back as far as the late 1980’s when John Aldridge introduced a feint in his run up as one of the earliest examples of this.

Aside from deception, other players intend to convert their penalty with the quality of their strike. This is the old fashioned method and one that is consistently referred to by commentators and pundits as the go to method. Pick your spot, don’t change your mind and make a good connection.

In addition to intention, the other important aspect to a great penalty taker is execution. Whatever a penalty takers intention, their execution of that method has to be right. The relationship between intention and execution becomes significant though when looking at the styles of penalties and the destined target for the ball.

First if we take players who use the deception method of penalty taking. In this category you have the likes of Cantona and Toney. They aim to deceive the keeper, knowing that should they be successful, the execution of their shot if fairly easy, knowing they have at least half the goal, sometimes more in which to dispatch the ball once the keeper had been deceived. This is often highlighted by the fact that this type of penalty is often rolled slowly onto an empty side of the goal with the keeper laying prone on the opposite side of the goal.

The second method; quality of strike. In this category comes the likes of Shearer and Lampard who back themselves to beat the keeper with the quality of their shot without attempting to deceive the keeper. Their reasoning is that if they execute their strike as they intend to then the keeper will be unable to make the save.

Both of these methods have their benefits, however there are a couple of key differences, and these are bother relevant to Kane. Take Ivan Toney as an example, a player who uses the deception method, could you definitively say where he puts his best penalty? The answer will be no, his spot kicks could go high, low, left or right depending on which way he deceives the keeper into going. Obviously there is no guarantee with this method, some keepers try to stand up as long as possible to make it harder for the taker, but crucially the keeper cannot anticipate his favourite side or his favourite penalty as every kick will be different depending on the actions of the keeper. Secondly, there is less that can go wrong with the execution of the strike as power is not needed, the keeper has either been deceived - giving an easy finish, or has stayed stood up meaning the corners of the goal are unreachable.

In contrast to this is Kane. He does not use the deception method at all and relies on the quality of the strike. As with the question asked of Toney’s favourite side or favourite pen you could ask the same question of Kane, and the answer would be high to the keepers right. So, instantly when Kane steps up to take a penalty he knows his favourite penalty, he knows the keeper knows his favourite penalty and therefore the strike has to be almost perfect as the keeper will know where he wants to go.

Clearly Kane does not go the same place with every penalty but if you study his kicks he has three penalties. First choice is the well struck penalty to the keepers right, second is the chip down the middle which for a long time was his go to pressure penalty, and the third is the side foot to the keepers left. The issue here is that two of the three options Kane has for pens are saveable if the keeper guesses right. Standing still as Karius did at Anfield and made an easy save, or guessing right as Schmiechel did in the Euros semi final, another easy save. Therefore, Kane more often than not goes with his favourite well struck shot to the keepers left. 66.66% of his England penalties have gone in that direction.

So, with no deception involved, the keepers knowing his favourite penalty and only a couple of saveable alternatives to take, Kane’s execution of his penalties has to be near perfect. This is why he is a good penalty taker because he is a clean striker of the ball and will nearly always produce a quality strike. However, when you strike the ball with the much power, it only takes a slight variation in the execution for it to go wrong. Think medium fast bowler in cricket and how accurate they are, then compare it to the out and out paceman and the variations in line and length they produce. Penalty taking is the same, a slight change in the body shape will be enough to change the trajectory of the ball massively.

So back to last night and Kane slots away his first penalty. A quality strike into the corner of the net, which even if Lloris guesses right isn’t being saved. Second penalty arrives and Kane knows if he takes either of his second or third options and Lloris guesses right then the keeper will almost certainly save it so he decides to continue with his go to penalty. He knows the strike has to be perfect, and then as he steps up he can see Lloris in his peripheral vision start to go the right way and he knows he needs to hit it hard so puts a little bit more power into it. He probably also remembers when he faced a team mate earlier this season & Dean Henderson saved his well struck penalty, and thinks he needs a bit more height as well as power. This slight variation to his technique for the extra height and power is enough to reduce the quality of the execution of the strike and send the ball over the bar.

From an England point of view there is nobody else in that squad I would want taking a penalty kick in that situation, and as his stats show, 84% of the time he is successful. However, being predictable as he is puts pressure on the execution, striking the ball with that much power puts pressure on the execution, and unfortunately for England last night showed what happened when that execution was slightly off.

Kane will be back, Kane will continue to score penalties, Kane will probably maintain a conversion rate in and around 85% and Kane will always be a good penalty taker. In order to develop into a great penalty taker like Le Tissier and Fernandes who have combined execution and deception or Shearer who had such a variety of areas to hit, he needs to develop some other alternative penalties that make him less predictable and put less pressure on his execution.